Nottingham Forest has re-established itself in the Premier League after decades away, returning to top-flight football in 2022. The 2025-26 UEFA Europa League presents a significant opportunity for the English club to capture a continental trophy and validate its resurgence as a competitive force. At 34% odds, the market reflects Forest as a mid-tier contender—stronger than long-shot teams but weaker than established European powerhouses like Manchester United, Roma, and Sevilla. The tournament runs from summer 2025 through May 2026, culminating in a final in Dublin or another European venue. Forest's participation hinges on qualifying for UEFA competition through Premier League placement in 2024-25. The 34% odds suggest traders view Forest as an outside challenger, though not impossible. English clubs have won Europa League titles in recent seasons, confirming the competition is winnable for strong Premier League sides. The market price has likely shifted based on Forest's domestic form and roster strength. Resolution is straightforward: Forest either lifts the trophy in May 2026 or does not—a binary, objectively verifiable outcome.
Deep dive — what moves this market
Nottingham Forest's journey back to European football represents one of English football's most compelling narratives. After 26 years absent from European competition following their 1996 exit, Forest's promotion to the Premier League in 2022 opened the door to continental play. For the 2025-26 season, the club enters the Europa League—often framed as Europe's second-tier competition beneath the Champions League, though it remains prestigious with former winners including Atlético Madrid, Sevilla, Porto, and more recently Atalanta and West Ham, demonstrating English Premier League clubs can succeed here. The competition has historically favored clubs with strong domestic foundations, European experience, and depth to handle fixture congestion across multiple fronts. Forest's recent resurgence suggests the club possesses the infrastructure and ambition to compete at this level. Several factors could propel Forest toward victory. First, a strong domestic finish in 2024-25 would afford higher seeding in the group stage, easing their path through qualification and early knockouts. Second, January transfer window reinforcements in attacking or defensive areas could shore up weaknesses. Third, a focused squad culture without Champions League distraction allows concentration on the tournament. Fourth, English clubs have proven competitive; Aston Villa reached the 2024 semifinal, West Ham had a memorable 2023 run, and Leicester won the trophy in 2021, establishing English competitiveness. Conversely, several headwinds could derail the campaign. First, injuries to key players during domestic play could weaken the squad during critical Europa League phases. Second, fixture fatigue is real; balancing 38 Premier League matches with European midweek ties over nine months strains squad rotation. Third, the tournament includes established European clubs with deeper knockout experience—Ajax, Fiorentina, AZ Alkmaar, Olympiacos, and others with trophy pedigree. Fourth, Forest's modest payroll compared to Manchester United or Liverpool limits marquee January signings. Fifth, a poor domestic 2024-25 could see Forest miss qualification entirely or enter at lower seeding, facing tougher initial opponents. The 34% odds suggest traders view Forest as a genuine but not favored challenger. In a 32-team tournament, top-seeded elite sides carry 12-18% odds; mid-tier clubs like Forest typically occupy 25-40%. The current pricing reflects Forest's status as a rising but not yet dominant European force. Historically, Nottingham Forest won the European Cup in 1979 and 1980 under Brian Clough, though that era's competitive landscape differs vastly from modern UEFA structure. The May 24, 2026 final will definitively settle this market.
