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Obsession is a thriller releasing in May 2026. This prediction market asks whether it will achieve the highest domestic box office gross among all films released in May by the June 30 resolution date. At 1% market odds, traders assign extremely low probability to this outcome, suggesting they expect stronger May competition. The market captures trader conviction about the film's commercial viability relative to other May releases. Resolution requires comparing final domestic gross figures for all May-released films, making this a measurable, transparent outcome. The low liquidity ($5.7K) and volume ($325 in 24h) reflect niche interest in this specific matchup. Most May films typically underperform major theatrical tentpoles, and the 1% odds suggest traders view Obsession as unlikely to outperform its May cohort by June 30.
Obsession as a May 2026 release enters a crowded theatrical marketplace. May historically sees a mix of studio tentpoles, mid-budget thrillers, and smaller releases competing for audience dollars. For a thriller to achieve the highest domestic gross among all May releases by June 30 requires not only strong opening weekend performance but sustained theatrical legs through the entire May release window. The 1% odds suggest traders expect at least one significantly larger competitor to overshadow this film commercially throughout the measurement period. Factors supporting a YES outcome would include critical acclaim lifting the film beyond typical thriller expectations, word-of-mouth driving strong weekday and weekend holds, A-list cast or recognizable IP driving repeat viewership, and an absence of competing major franchises that could splinter audience dollars. Historical precedent shows original thrillers occasionally outperform bloated tentpoles when executed with craft and star power, though this remains the exception in modern theatrical markets. Factors supporting a NO outcome—the current market consensus—include May's typical slate containing established franchises, sequels, or event films with larger marketing budgets and pre-existing fan bases. Theatrical audiences continue fragmenting across streaming alternatives, and thrillers show modest aggregate box office performance in recent years. May 2026 timing suggests direct competition from IP-driven releases with higher commercial ceilings. Even well-received original thrillers rarely lead entire release months domestically when facing franchise competition. The 1% pricing reflects established box office patterns: original films rarely achieve the highest gross in competitive months against franchises. Traders assign near-baseline probability, viewing Obsession's victory as requiring exceptionally favorable conditions—a weak May landscape, viral word-of-mouth, and sustained theatrical performance.
Market resolves on June 30, 2026 by comparing final domestic box office gross of Obsession against all other films released in May 2026. YES resolves if Obsession records the highest domestic total.
Polymarket Trade is an independent third-party interface to the Polymarket CLOB prediction market exchange on Polygon — not affiliated with Polymarket, Inc. Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. Every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. Polymarket Trade is non-custodial — your funds never leave your wallet. Open the full interactive page linked above to place orders, see order book depth, and execute a trade.
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