Obsession is opening its theatrical run this weekend, and prediction markets are pricing a 57% probability it will land in the $13–15 million range for opening weekend domestic box office. This mid-tier bracket reflects traders' assessment of the film's positioning: neither a blockbuster opening nor a soft specialty release. The market will resolve using official box office data from Box Office Mojo or similar authoritative sources by May 18. At 57%, traders are moderately confident the film will hit this specific window, though a meaningful 43% probability remains for outcomes outside this range—either stronger or weaker openings. The tight range suggests conviction around certain audience appeal and marketing penetration. Box office volatility remains inherent, especially for opening weekends where word-of-mouth, weather, and competing releases can shift final results. Traders appear to be balancing optimism about the film's platform with caution about broader market conditions.
What factors could move this market?
The $13–15 million opening weekend bracket for Obsession sits at a critical inflection point in the box office landscape. Films grossing in this range represent successful execution of mid-market positioning—neither blockbuster nor specialty, but rather films with defined audience bases and competent marketing achieving solid per-theater averages. The market's 57% probability reflects traders making calculated bets on the film's ability to capture its target demographic efficiently. Factors supporting the YES outcome include: demonstrated platform strength if Obsession carries recognizable talent or source IP; demographic precision if marketing effectively reaches core audiences; favorable competitive conditions with limited overlapping releases in the same niche; and strong preview metrics generating organic word-of-mouth amplification. Films in this range typically demonstrate Friday-to-Sunday multipliers between 2.5x and 3.5x, suggesting repeat viewing or strong Saturday-Sunday attendance patterns. If Obsession achieves this execution profile, the $13–15M range becomes a high-probability outcome. Working against YES are structural industry headwinds: genre saturation effects, audience fragmentation toward streaming platforms, economic sensitivity in theatrical attendance, and binary outcomes from critical reception that can dramatically shift mid-budget performance. A single negative signal—poor early social response, critical consensus shift, or competing releases under-performing relative to expectations—can suppress audience turnout, particularly for films without established franchise recognition. The $13–15M bracket is deliberately narrow, meaning films grossing $10–12M or $16–18M miss resolution entirely, creating asymmetric outcome scenarios. The 57% pricing reflects an informed trader cohort with conviction-based positioning on audience size, marketing ROI efficiency, and competitive positioning within the May calendar. The two-day resolution window means price movements in the final 48 hours will reflect real-time box office tracking data and weekend projection models.
What are traders watching for?
Opening Friday box office total and daily tracking through business close will signal whether film is on pace for $13–15M range.
Saturday and Sunday matinee attendance, especially family audiences, will reveal demographic uptake and per-theater average trajectory.
Competing releases' performance and audience cannibalization across genre-adjacent films will determine if Obsession captures expected market share.
Critical reviews published Friday morning and social sentiment through weekend will influence Saturday-Sunday repeat viewing and organic growth.
How does this market resolve?
Resolution uses official opening weekend (Friday–Sunday) domestic box office figures from Box Office Mojo or equivalent authoritative tracking source. The market resolves YES if the total falls between $13.0M and $15.0M inclusive, NO otherwise, with results finalized by May 18, 2026.
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