Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of Iran's last shah, has lived outside Iran since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. His potential return to Iranian territory would represent a significant geopolitical development with implications for regional stability. The prediction market on Polymarket Trade currently prices this event at just 3% through May 31, 2026, reflecting market consensus that such a return remains highly unlikely within this timeframe. This low probability reflects both the entrenched political situation in Iran and the substantial barriers to any individual's unauthorized entry. While periodic speculation emerges about potential Iranian political transitions, the market assigns minimal probability to Reza Pahlavi's physical return to Iran by the deadline. The market has recorded approximately $22,000 in trading volume with around $50,000 in available liquidity. Traders taking a YES position would be positioning for an extremely low-probability outcome requiring fundamental shifts in Iran's political landscape in just over one month. The current 3% odds reflect the market consensus that regime change or conditions enabling his return remain unlikely in the near term, though geopolitical situations can shift unexpectedly. Market resolution depends on verified confirmation of Reza Pahlavi's physical entry into Iran before the May 31 cutoff.