The 2026 Brazilian presidential election will occur on October 4, 2026, with the first round determining the top candidates. Ronaldo Caiado, current governor of Goiás, is a prominent center-right figure positioning himself as a moderate choice in an increasingly polarized political landscape. This market examines whether he will finish second in first-round voting. At 2% implied odds, traders assign this outcome an extremely low probability. The price reflects expectations that Caiado will either finish lower in the standings or, conversely, emerge strong enough to avoid the second-place slot. Second place is historically decisive in Brazilian presidential races, as it triggers a runoff matchup with the first-place finisher. Market prices have remained near 2% since listing, suggesting stable skepticism about Caiado's path to a close second-place finish despite his political prominence. Official results from the Tribunal Superior Eleitoral will resolve this market with certainty.