Kostyantynivka is a strategic city located in Donetsk Oblast in eastern Ukraine, positioned approximately 40 kilometers from active frontlines. This prediction market trades on whether Russian military forces will capture and maintain control of the city by the end of 2026. The current YES odds of 81% reflect participants' collective assessment that territorial gains, if sustained at current pace, could achieve this objective within the timeframe. Market resolution typically requires verifiable control of the city's core administrative area, not merely military encirclement or approach. The elevated pricing throughout 2026 suggests sustained participant conviction in continued Russian territorial advancement. The nine-month deadline allows substantial time for military conditions to evolve. Resolution will depend on open-source intelligence reporting, published military analysis, and objective territorial control indicators verifiable at year-end. The 81% odds imply material but non-certain probability of this outcome occurring. This market represents neutral participant trading on an active geopolitical situation with significant humanitarian, economic, and strategic implications for the region. Trading this market reflects speculation on military outcomes, not endorsement of any party or position.