The 2026 PGA Championship, one of golf's four major tournaments, concludes on May 18, 2026. With current odds at 0%, the prediction market reflects overwhelming consensus that Ryo Hisatsune will not win the title. Hisatsune is a professional golfer based on the Japan Golf Tour, and the PGA Championship field comprises the world's elite players with proven major championship credentials. The sharp repricing to 0% indicates either he failed to qualify for the tournament, missed the cut in early rounds, or the tournament is in final stages with his elimination confirmed. Market participants have assigned zero probability to his victory, showing no remaining path to the championship. This pricing reflects trader conviction based on current tournament standings and leaderboard position.
What factors could move this market?
Ryo Hisatsune is a professional golfer with a career primarily on Japan's professional tour system. The PGA Championship represents one of golf's most prestigious annual events, restricted to elite players with qualifying status through previous major championship success, high world rankings, top tour earnings, and invitation. Historically, players from regional tours competing in major championships face structural disadvantages unless they have already established themselves at world-class levels. For Hisatsune to win, he would need not only to be active in the tournament but to overcome competition from players with superior track records in major championships—an outcome the 0% pricing deems essentially impossible. Factors pushing toward YES would require: (1) confirmation he actually remains eligible and competing, (2) a massive leaderboard comeback from significant deficit, and (3) sustained stellar golf through final rounds against top-ranked competitors. Factors supporting NO are more evident: the 0% odds likely reflect that he either didn't qualify for the field, missed the cut after early rounds, or finished in positions mathematically impossible for victory. Historical precedent shows that only occasionally do golfers from Asia's regional tours win PGA Championships, and only after establishing elite world rankings first. The current market pricing of 0% is not speculative but represents the near-complete elimination of remaining possibilities—a common pattern in live sports markets as tournaments near conclusion. Traders have priced in hard information about tournament field composition and current standings, leaving negligible probability for an Hisatsune victory.
What are traders watching for?
PGA Championship concludes May 18, 2026—market resolves by official tournament results and winner announcement
Confirm Hisatsune's current leaderboard status: still competing, missed cut, or withdrawn from tournament
Monitor final round standings if still in competition—mathematical distance from leader determines victory probability
Watch for any rule changes, weather delays, or field modifications that could alter tournament structure before finale
How does this market resolve?
Market resolves based on the official 2026 PGA Championship winner announced on or after May 18, 2026. Winner determined by lowest aggregate score across 72 holes of stroke play competition.
Polymarket Trade is an independent third-party interface to the Polymarket CLOB prediction market exchange on Polygon — not affiliated with Polymarket, Inc. Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. Every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. Polymarket Trade is non-custodial — your funds never leave your wallet. Open the full interactive page linked above to place orders, see order book depth, and execute a trade.
