Sam Burns, a PGA Tour professional, is competing in the 2026 PGA Championship against one of golf's most elite fields. The championship represents one of the sport's four major tournaments, the highest-stakes events in professional golf. Burns carries just 1% odds to win, reflecting the depth of competition and the presence of world-ranked players who have demonstrated stronger recent form. The low odds suggest the market views Burns as a long-shot candidate compared to established contenders with recent tournament wins and consistent major championship finishes. Major championship outcomes depend on factors like course conditions, momentum, and field composition. Burns' odds trajectory indicates he's not currently among favorites, though markets can shift based on practice rounds, weather forecasts, or breaking news about competitors' fitness and form.
What factors could move this market?
Sam Burns is a PGA Tour professional who has competed across multiple seasons at the professional level. While he has earned tour status and competed in various tour events, he has not yet established himself as a dominant force in major championships or a consistent winner on the professional circuit. The 2026 PGA Championship features an exceptionally deep and competitive field, including world-ranked players, recent tournament winners, established major championship performers, and golfers with significant career accomplishments. Burns' 1% odds reflect his standing as a considerable long-shot in a competition where dozens of players possess stronger recent form or proven major championship experience. To prevail, Burns would need to execute at an extraordinarily high level across four competitive rounds against significantly stronger-favored competitors. This requires not only personal excellence in stroke play and course management but also favorable conditions, exceptional putting, mental resilience, and perhaps key mistakes from tournament favorites. Historically, major championship victories go to players with established track records in these events—either past major winners or golfers who recently demonstrated excellence under high-pressure conditions. Occasional surprises occur when lesser-known players find their absolute best form at precisely the right moment, but these remain rare. Burns would need to replicate such uncommon upsets where lower-ranked players produced career-best performances against notably stronger fields. The market's 1% valuation suggests strong consensus among traders that Burns faces substantial odds against winning. Favorites presumably include recent PGA Tour champions, players with proven major victories, higher world rankings, and strong recent results. The odds gap between Burns and primary contenders reflects the market's incorporation of form metrics, historical major performance data, recent results, and competitive strength assessments. Live leaderboard movement, weather conditions, course setup, and performance under pressure will ultimately determine outcomes.
What are traders watching for?
Sam Burns' recent PGA Tour results and performance metrics in weeks before the championship indicate his current form level heading into major competition.
Opening round and leaderboard updates during the championship show how Burns performs against the full competitive field and contention positioning.
Weather forecasts and official course setup announcements from the championship venue could create conditions favoring particular playing styles or strengths.
Announcements regarding key competitor availability, injuries, or last-minute field changes that might alter competitive dynamics among tournament favorites.
How does this market resolve?
The market resolves YES if Sam Burns wins the 2026 PGA Championship as determined by official PGA Tour results. Resolution occurs when the championship concludes on or before May 18, 2026.
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