Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin, disappeared from public view in 2010 and has never publicly disclosed ownership or moved any of the estimated 980,000 Bitcoin associated with early mining activity. The Bitcoin blockchain is transparent and immutable—any movement of these coins can be verified on-chain in real time. Currently trading at just 8% YES odds, the market reflects the strong historical precedent that these coins remain dormant. The price implies that traders view Satoshi's coins as effectively locked or abandoned. However, the question of whether Satoshi still controls these addresses remains a persistent mystery in the crypto community. If any Bitcoin from widely accepted Satoshi addresses moves during 2026, the market resolves YES. This could occur if Satoshi is alive and chooses to consolidate holdings, respond to developments, or move coins to different addresses. Conversely, the vast majority of traders betting on NO (92% odds) believe the coins will remain untouched, reflecting either Satoshi's inactivity or permanent loss of access to the private keys. The low probability assigned suggests market skepticism about Satoshi's return or the viability of moving decades-old coins.