The Cadillac Championship is a PGA Tour event concluding on May 3, 2026. Scottie Scheffler, the world's top-ranked golfer, is trading at just 11% odds to win—a surprisingly low probability given his documented dominance on tour. This pricing likely reflects several factors: the depth of the field, inherent volatility in golf tournaments where any top-50 player can compete effectively on a given week, and Scheffler's positioning relative to other favored competitors. While Scheffler's recent form has been exceptional and he leads most skill metrics, the 11% odds suggest traders believe other competitors hold stronger relative positions or that the tournament setup favors different playing styles. The market pricing also accounts for course conditions, field composition, and the unpredictable nature of stroke-play competition. At 11%, the probability implies either that Scheffler faces above-average competition in this particular event, or that other top contenders have already established more favorable odds positions.
Deep dive — what moves this market
Scottie Scheffler has established himself as professional golf's dominant force in 2024-2026, with multiple major championships and consistent top-10 finishes across PGA Tour events. His statistical edge in strokes gained, approach shots, and putting consistency has made him a natural favorite in most tournaments. However, the 11% odds for the Cadillac Championship suggest the market is pricing in specific competitive dynamics unique to this event. The tournament, held at Doral Resort in Florida, traditionally features a deep field of elite competitors fighting for end-of-season positioning and FedEx Cup points. The course itself favors precision ball-striking and course management over pure distance, areas where Scheffler historically excels but where other specialists may compete on equal footing. For Scheffler to win, he would need to execute his standard level of performance—disciplined approach work, accuracy off the tee, and clutch putting on a course that suits his skill set. His recent tournament results and world ranking provide a statistical foundation for victory. The contrarian odds suggest a significant portion of the field is viewed as competitive or favored by market participants. Against a Scheffler win, multiple factors apply. Field depth means several competitors have equally strong recent form or course-specific experience at Doral. Golf tournaments inherently feature unpredictable outcomes; even the best players win fewer than 20-30% of events they enter. If specific rivals have recently posted strong metrics, lead historical records at this venue, or represent form surges, traders may weight their chances above Scheffler's for this particular week. Prediction markets historically discount favorites in golf, as the sport's variance and international field strength make concentration-of-probability risky. The 11% odds for the world's top player reflects this market reality. If Scheffler had won the previous three tournaments or held exceptional course records at Doral, odds would likely reach 20-30%; the lower pricing suggests traders see evidence that competing favorites are better positioned this specific event.
What traders watch for
Scheffler's opening round scoring and approach-shot accuracy at Doral; early performance signals competitive positioning.
Weather conditions and course setup including wind speed, green firmness, and pin placements affecting playing strategy.
Performance of competing favorites and their leaderboard position; strong rivals reduce Scheffler's win probability.
Leaderboard standing through 36 holes; Scheffler's position relative to leaders determines final-round tournament dynamics.
How does this market resolve?
The market resolves YES if Scottie Scheffler records the lowest total score at the 2026 Cadillac Championship concluding May 3, 2026. Any other golfer winning resolves to NO.
Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. On Polymarket Trade, every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. This page summarizes the market state for readers arriving from search; for live trading (place orders, see order book depth, execute a trade) open the full interactive page linked above.
