Lecornu Out Before 2027: 0% Prediction Market Odds

Sébastien Lecornu, France's Defence Minister since 2022, carries 0% market-priced probability of leaving his leadership position before 2027. This near-zero odds reflects trader conviction in his political durability within Emmanuel Macron's government. The market closes December 31, 2026, providing six months for any potential removal catalyst to emerge. Current volume of $16.5K suggests limited speculative interest, typical of low-probability political outcomes where traders see minimal realistic change.

What factors could move this market?

Lecornu represents one of France's key defense establishment figures under Macron, holding the Defence Ministry portfolio since 2022. His 0% market probability indicates traders assess extremely low risk of his removal through resignation, scandal, electoral loss, or government collapse before year-end 2026. French governmental structures typically maintain ministerial continuity unless facing major crises—military failures, personal scandals, or broader coalition instability—none of which currently threaten Lecornu's position. Historical precedent shows French defence ministers rarely face sudden removal outside planned reshuffles or electoral transitions. The minimal trading volume reflects the market's assessment that this outcome requires extraordinary political upheaval. Lecornu's role in defense policy and military readiness means his removal would signal serious governmental dysfunction. The 0% odds could shift sharply if geopolitical crises escalate European security concerns, if major defense procurement scandals emerge, or if Macron's political coalition fractures significantly. Current conditions support the market's conviction that his tenure remains secure through 2026.

What are traders watching for?

• Macron government reorganization or major ministerial reshuffle announcement before Dec 31, 2026
• Military policy failure or major defense scandal requiring ministerial accountability
• Broader French political instability or coalition collapse affecting government stability
• Personal or political scandal involving Lecornu becoming public knowledge
• Unexpected resignation or health-related departure from office

How does this market resolve?

Resolves YES if Sébastien Lecornu ceases to hold his leadership position (Defence Minister or equivalent role) before December 31, 2026. Resolves NO if he remains in office through that date.