SpaceX, the private aerospace company founded by Elon Musk, has long been considered a potential IPO candidate. An initial public offering would represent a major capital event for the company, which operates the Starlink satellite internet service and provides commercial launch services for government and commercial customers. The market resolves based on whether SpaceX completes a public offering before August 31, 2026. At 87% YES, traders are pricing in substantial likelihood that an IPO will occur within this window. SpaceX has demonstrated strong financial metrics through its satellite and launch services, making it an attractive candidate for public markets. Recent years have seen increased regulatory clarity around commercial space operations, potentially smoothing the path to listing. The probability may fluctuate based on broader market conditions, interest rate trends, and any public statements from SpaceX leadership regarding IPO timing. Resolution is binary: either SpaceX completes an IPO by the deadline, or it remains private beyond August 31, 2026.