The Bank of Russia holds regular Monetary Policy Committee meetings to review and adjust its key rate, the primary tool for managing inflation and financial stability. The April 2026 meeting represents a critical decision point for Russia's monetary policy direction. Markets are pricing in a 98% probability that the central bank will make a decision (either raising or lowering the rate), with only a 2% chance of holding rates steady. This extreme conviction reflects the current economic environment: elevated inflation pressures and the ongoing impact of international sanctions have created significant pressure on the ruble and price stability. The Bank of Russia has demonstrated a data-driven approach to rate decisions in recent months, responding to actual inflation readings and financial conditions rather than maintaining a static policy. The current market pricing suggests traders believe recent economic indicators—whether inflation acceleration or broader financial stress—leave little room for a hold decision at this April meeting. Historical patterns show the BoR typically adjusts rates when inflation or currency stability is at risk, which aligns with current market expectations. The odds trajectory will likely track incoming inflation data, ruble strength, and any forward guidance from the central bank in the weeks leading up to April 24.