The Devil Wears Prada 2 arrives May 4, 2026, marking the long-awaited return of Meryl Streep as Miranda Priestly sixteen years after the original's 2006 cultural dominance. This market specifically caps the opening weekend domestic range at $90-100 million, a narrow corridor that reflects genuine uncertainty about the film's actual performance. The 1% current odds indicate traders overwhelmingly expect the opening to fall outside this specific window—either significantly higher, capitalizing on legacy appeal and Streep's enduring star power, or substantially lower if theatrical demand proves softer than presales suggest. The market structure reveals conviction that the outcome will be binary: either a major blockbuster event exceeding $100M, or a more restrained opening below $90M. Pre-release box office tracking and weekend expert forecasts will inform trader positions, but the current pricing suggests the 90-100M sweet spot has already been deemed unlikely by the marketplace consensus.
Deep dive — what moves this market
The Devil Wears Prada franchise holds a unique position in contemporary cinema: the original 2006 film was a commercial and cultural juggernaut that grossed $326 million worldwide, making it one of the highest-grossing films of that decade and spawning iconic moments that entered pop culture vernacular. Two decades later, the decision to greenlight a sequel speaks to enduring audience appetite for Miranda Priestly's imperatives. However, predicting the opening weekend for a legacy sequel in 2026 requires weighing competing forces. On the upside, the return of Meryl Streep—still commanding significant star power at 76—provides a nostalgic anchor that could draw both original fans and curious newcomers. The fashion industry's cultural relevance and marketing emphasis on Streep could drive presales momentum, particularly in female-skewed demographics. Early May positioning offers timing advantages if studios project high audience interest. Conversely, several headwinds could constrain the opening. Sequels arriving 20+ years after the original face skepticism about relevance and necessity. The theatrical landscape has fragmented since 2006—streaming competes for audiences, and box office floors have shifted downward post-pandemic. The original's $27.1M opening weekend (strong for 2006) suggests reaching $90-100M in 2026 requires exceptional presale momentum or multipliers increasingly rare in modern theatrical. Recent female-led prestige comedies have underperformed the $100M threshold despite A-list talent. The 1% odds likely reflect trader conviction that actual results cluster at extremes: either $110M+ if nostalgia dominates, or sub-$90M if skepticism and headwinds prevail. The pricing treats 90-100M as one unlikely outcome among many, with consensus marginalizing this narrow window.
What traders watch for
May 4, 2026: Opening weekend box office actuals settle the market; deadline creates final price discovery window before resolution.
Thursday presales (May 2-3): Early ticket sales volume signals audience enthusiasm and indicates 90-100M range viability.
Friday opening day (May 3): First real-time box office data drives intraday moves and shapes weekend outcome trajectory.
Competing releases: Other films opening same weekend determine market share; tracking forecasts adjust trader positions.
Box office tracking reports: Thursday/Friday expert forecasts narrow outcome range and reduce residual uncertainty.
How does this market resolve?
This market resolves on May 4, 2026, using domestic box office data for The Devil Wears Prada 2's opening weekend (Friday–Sunday, May 3–5). Market settles YES if opening weekend gross falls within the $90-100 million range (inclusive); all other outcomes resolve NO.
Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. On Polymarket Trade, every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. This page summarizes the market state for readers arriving from search; for live trading (place orders, see order book depth, execute a trade) open the full interactive page linked above.
