The Federal Reserve's federal funds rate upper bound is a key monetary policy instrument that influences lending costs across the economy. The Fed sets a target range for the federal funds rate, with an upper bound that adjusts through policy decisions driven by inflation, employment, and economic growth. This market resolves YES if the upper bound reaches or stays at 5.25% or higher by December 31, 2026. At current odds of 4%, the market is pricing in a low probability that the upper bound will remain at 5.25% or above through year-end 2026. The Fed recently concluded an aggressive tightening campaign, bringing the upper bound to 5.50%. For YES resolution, the upper bound must remain at 5.25% or higher — the market is effectively pricing in a significant probability of rate cuts that would lower the upper bound below this threshold. The subdued odds reflect market expectations of monetary easing as inflation moderates. Odds have remained stable at low levels, suggesting consensus that the Fed will cut rates before 2027, potentially reducing the upper bound below the 5.25% level.