Craig Wright, an Australian computer scientist, has long claimed to be Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin. His assertion has been controversial within the cryptocurrency community and beyond, with many prominent figures disputing his identity. The upcoming Finding Satoshi documentary is investigating this question, examining evidence and testimony related to whether Wright is indeed the Bitcoin founder. The prediction market prices this outcome at just 1% YES, indicating traders are highly skeptical. This low probability reflects years of accumulated doubt within crypto communities. The market will resolve based on whether the documentary explicitly identifies or endorses Craig Wright as Satoshi Nakamoto. With a deadline of May 1, 2026, the market offers several weeks for the documentary to be released and analyzed by the community before final resolution. The minimal odds have remained relatively stable, suggesting no new evidence has significantly shifted trader sentiment.