Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Gavin Andresen as Satoshi Nakamoto? Current YES odds: 0%. Trade this market prediction.
This market has been archived. Historical content preserved below.
The Finding Satoshi documentary explores the longstanding mystery surrounding Bitcoin's pseudonymous creator. Gavin Andresen served as lead maintainer of the Bitcoin project after Satoshi Nakamoto's initial withdrawal and was considered by some community members as a potential candidate due to his early technical involvement and credentials. However, Andresen has consistently denied any connection to Satoshi's identity, and mainstream analysis has not substantiated this theory with credible evidence. The documentary's release will provide a definitive record of whether it concludes that Gavin Andresen is Satoshi Nakamoto. The current 0% YES odds reflect strong market consensus that such an identification is extremely unlikely, indicating widespread participant belief that the documentary will not present this claim or supporting evidence. Regardless of trading position, the outcome will be determined solely by what the completed documentary states or implies about Andresen's potential connection to Bitcoin's creator when it releases by May 1, 2026.
The market resolves based on whether the Finding Satoshi documentary identifies Gavin Andresen as Satoshi Nakamoto upon release. The resolution deadline is May 1, 2026.
Polymarket Trade is an independent third-party interface to the Polymarket CLOB prediction market exchange on Polygon — not affiliated with Polymarket, Inc. Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. Every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. Polymarket Trade is non-custodial — your funds never leave your wallet. Open the full interactive page linked above to place orders, see order book depth, and execute a trade.