Ankara in early May typically experiences spring temperatures, marking a transition from winter cold toward summer warmth. The question targets an exact match to 3°C as the daily high, a notably specific and cold scenario for this calendar period. At 2% YES odds, traders have priced this outcome as highly unlikely given seasonal norms. For context, Ankara's average high temperature on May 3 historically falls between 18 and 25°C, making a maximum of precisely 3°C an extreme outlier that would require an unusual late-season cold weather intrusion. Such an event might occur if a significant Arctic high-pressure system extended southward from Russia or Siberia, similar to the occasional frost events that periodically affect central Anatolia in late April or early May. The low odds reflect historical rarity and the short timeframe for such a dramatic deviation. With only $1,046 in total liquidity and minimal 24-hour trading volume, this market shows low overall trader conviction, suggesting most traders view the probability as negligible.
Deep dive — what moves this market
Ankara's climate during May is governed by late spring atmospheric patterns as the Northern Hemisphere transitions toward summer. The city experiences continental influences from the interior Anatolian plateau, creating temperature extremes compared to coastal regions. A daily high temperature of exactly 3°C would represent a departure from normal conditions by approximately 15-20 degrees, indicating a severe cold event unlikely to occur without major meteorological disruption. Such extremes occasionally emerge when Arctic polar vortex wobbles send cold air masses far south, though timing and intensity are difficult to predict with precision weeks in advance. Factors driving a YES outcome include unexpected northward surges of Arctic air masses, similar to 'cold snaps' that periodically affect southeastern Europe and western Asia. Late-season snow events in central Anatolia have historically occurred in early May when collision between warm Mediterranean air and retreating polar systems creates instability. If a major high-pressure system parks over Russia and channels Arctic polar maritime air southeastward, temperatures could plummet. Upper-atmosphere jet stream position 2-3 days before May 3 would ultimately determine whether cold advection reaches Ankara specifically. Conversely, the NO outcome is supported by strong seasonal warming trends and rarity of such extreme cold in May. Climatological data from the past 50 years shows sub-5°C daily highs in early May occur fewer than once per decade in Ankara. Model consensus from European and U.S. weather forecasting centers shows no shocking disagreement with seasonal expectations. Spring transient systems typically bring rain but not sustained sub-freezing highs. The question's specificity—asking for exactly 3°C rather than a range—further reduces probability, since even a cold day might peak at 4°C or 2°C rather than hitting the target precisely. Current 2% odds reflect historical rarity and absence of early warning signals from extended weather models. Light trading activity suggests this niche market attracts only specialized weather traders comfortable with extreme tail events. Any odds movement would likely follow European weather model releases, particularly 5-7 day forecasts hinting at unusual cold anomalies.
What traders watch for
Weather model updates from European Center for Medium-Range Forecasts and GFS 5-day outlook; any Arctic intrusion indication shifts odds.
May 1-3 observed patterns; if Ankara shows unusual cloud cover, precipitation, or overnight frosts, cold scenario becomes more plausible.
Turkish meteorological reports and early-May precipitation and temperature records; official data determines final market resolution.
Polar vortex displacement tracking; any northward Arctic air mass extension toward Turkey would dramatically increase probability.
How does this market resolve?
Market resolves YES if the highest temperature recorded in Ankara on May 3, 2026 is exactly 3°C per Turkish meteorological authority data. Resolution occurs at market close on May 3, 2026.
Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. On Polymarket Trade, every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. This page summarizes the market state for readers arriving from search; for live trading (place orders, see order book depth, execute a trade) open the full interactive page linked above.
