Will the highest temperature in Austin stay at 69°F or below on April 20? Current YES odds at 95% reflect expectations for cooler spring weather on this daily temperature market.
This market has been archived. Historical content preserved below.
Austin typically experiences mild to warm spring conditions in late April, with average high temperatures in the low-to-mid 80s°F. This daily temperature market asks whether the highest temperature recorded in Austin on April 20, 2026 will remain at or below 69°F. The 95% YES odds reflect strong confidence that temperatures will stay cool, suggesting traders anticipate either cloud cover, cooler air masses, or weather systems typical of April variability in central Texas. A 69°F high is notably cooler than typical late-April conditions, which makes the high odds somewhat notable—this implies either unusual weather forecasts showing cooler-than-normal conditions, or traders pricing in potential evening cooling or morning temperature preservation. The market's price trajectory would typically shift based on updated weather models and forecasts as April 20 approaches. Resolution is determined by observed high temperature data from official Austin weather stations.
The market resolves YES if Austin's highest temperature on April 20 is 69°F or below, based on official weather station data. It resolves NO if the high exceeds 69°F.
Polymarket Trade is an independent third-party interface to the Polymarket CLOB prediction market exchange on Polygon — not affiliated with Polymarket, Inc. Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. Every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. Polymarket Trade is non-custodial — your funds never leave your wallet. Open the full interactive page linked above to place orders, see order book depth, and execute a trade.