Will Austin's high temperature be 72-73°F on April 20? Market odds: 1% YES probability, implying traders expect temps outside this narrow range.
This market has been archived. Historical content preserved below.
Austin's weather in late April typically features temperatures ranging from 75-90°F, making a daily high of exactly 72-73°F unusually cool for this time of year. This prediction market invites traders to speculate on whether Austin's high temperature will fall within this specific narrow range on April 20, 2026. The current market odds of only 1% for YES suggests traders view this outcome as highly unlikely, with the vast majority expecting Austin's high to either remain well below 72°F (a notably cool day) or climb significantly above 73°F (more typical spring warmth). The market's resolution will be determined by official National Weather Service (NWS) data recording the highest temperature reached in Austin on April 20. Late April in Austin typically brings steady warming trends as spring transitions toward summer, with clear skies and dry conditions becoming more common. For Austin to experience a high of merely 72-73°F would require disruption from an unusual weather pattern—perhaps a cold front moving through Texas or unexpected cloud cover limiting solar heating. Such conditions occur in April, but infrequently enough to justify the 1% probability traders currently assign to this outcome.
The market resolves using National Weather Service official high temperature data for Austin on April 20, 2026. Resolution occurs at the market's scheduled end time.
Polymarket Trade is an independent third-party interface to the Polymarket CLOB prediction market exchange on Polygon — not affiliated with Polymarket, Inc. Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. Every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. Polymarket Trade is non-custodial — your funds never leave your wallet. Open the full interactive page linked above to place orders, see order book depth, and execute a trade.