Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on April 20? Current YES odds: 0%. Trade this live daily weather prediction market.
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Austin experiences variable spring weather in April, with daily high temperatures typically ranging from the mid-70s to low 80s Fahrenheit. The specific outcome being traded here is whether the highest temperature on April 20, 2026 will fall within the narrow 78-79°F band. A 0% probability in the prediction market reflects strong expectations that Austin's actual high temperature will fall outside this specific range—either below 78°F or at 80°F or higher. Temperature predictions at this level of specificity are challenging because they depend on precise meteorological conditions including cloud cover, wind patterns, atmospheric pressure, and time-of-day measurement windows. The market's extreme pricing suggests traders expect the daily maximum to deviate significantly from this narrow band based on current forecasts and historical weather patterns for this date in Austin. This daily weather market resolves based on verified National Weather Service observations of Austin's actual highest temperature recorded on that day. The resolution criteria are objective and publicly available, making it a transparent market for weather traders monitoring specific temperature thresholds. Current 24-hour trading volume indicates moderate interest in this particular temperature range outcome among prediction market participants.
This market resolves on April 20, 2026 based on the National Weather Service's recorded highest temperature for Austin that day. The market closes YES if the official NWS reading shows the daily high between 78-79°F (inclusive), otherwise closes NO.
Polymarket Trade is an independent third-party interface to the Polymarket CLOB prediction market exchange on Polygon — not affiliated with Polymarket, Inc. Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. Every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. Polymarket Trade is non-custodial — your funds never leave your wallet. Open the full interactive page linked above to place orders, see order book depth, and execute a trade.