Will the highest recorded temperature in Beijing on April 20, 2026 be exactly 27°C? Current YES odds: 1%. Participate in weather prediction markets.
This market has been archived. Historical content preserved below.
Beijing experiences variable spring weather in mid-April, typically ranging from cool mornings to warm afternoons. The question focuses on whether the recorded highest temperature will reach exactly 27°C (approximately 81°F) on April 20, 2026. This specific threshold is notable because it represents a moderate warm day for Beijing at this time of year. The 1% odds currently assigned to this outcome suggest the market expects either cooler conditions or temperatures exceeding 27°C on that date. Resolution depends on the official maximum temperature reading from Beijing's meteorological authority for April 20. Historical weather patterns for this date show typical highs ranging between 22–28°C, making 27°C a plausible but not certain outcome. The low current price reflects uncertainty about whether conditions will align precisely at this threshold rather than above or below it. Weather prediction markets like this help participants understand collective expectations about specific atmospheric conditions, though daily temperature precision depends heavily on which weather station serves as the official reference point.
The market resolves based on the official maximum temperature recorded in Beijing on April 20, 2026. YES wins if the highest temperature is exactly 27°C; NO wins if it differs from this threshold.
Polymarket Trade is an independent third-party interface to the Polymarket CLOB prediction market exchange on Polygon — not affiliated with Polymarket, Inc. Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. Every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. Polymarket Trade is non-custodial — your funds never leave your wallet. Open the full interactive page linked above to place orders, see order book depth, and execute a trade.