Will Beijing's highest temperature reach 30°C or higher on April 20? Current odds: 0%. Traders assess the likelihood of hitting this heat threshold.
This market has been archived. Historical content preserved below.
Beijing experiences variable spring weather in April, with daytime temperatures typically ranging from 15–25°C during this transitional season. A high of 30°C or greater would represent an unusually warm day for mid-April and would mark a notable heat spike above the seasonal average for this time of year. The current market odds at 0% reflect strong trader skepticism that temperatures will climb to reach this threshold on April 20 specifically. Historical meteorological records show that while late April can occasionally experience 30°C+ days, the earlier portion of April tends to remain cooler, with fewer heat peaks. The market's heavily pessimistic pricing suggests that weather forecasts indicate cooler conditions are significantly more probable than a heat surge. Traders monitoring this market can cross-reference official Beijing weather forecasts, seasonal climate data, and recent temperature trends to form their own assessments. The resolution of this market will ultimately depend on the officially recorded maximum temperature on April 20 according to standard meteorological measurement protocols.
The market resolves YES if Beijing's highest recorded temperature on April 20 reaches 30°C or higher, and NO if it remains below 30°C. Official meteorological data for the date will determine the outcome.
Polymarket Trade is an independent third-party interface to the Polymarket CLOB prediction market exchange on Polygon — not affiliated with Polymarket, Inc. Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. Every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. Polymarket Trade is non-custodial — your funds never leave your wallet. Open the full interactive page linked above to place orders, see order book depth, and execute a trade.