Will Buenos Aires' high temperature reach exactly 22°C on April 20, 2026? Trade the odds now — currently 33% YES in this live weather prediction market.
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Buenos Aires experiences autumn weather in April, with typical highs ranging from 21°C to 24°C depending on wind patterns and continental air mass influences. April 20, 2026, sits at the tail end of Buenos Aires' autumn season, when temperatures can be volatile due to seasonal shifts between warm and cool air masses. This market asks whether the city's highest temperature on that specific date will be exactly 22°C—a prediction that requires precision, as forecasts at this granularity are inherently uncertain and sensitive to small changes in atmospheric conditions. The resolution will use official meteorological data from Argentina's national weather service (Servicio Meteorológico Nacional), ensuring a transparent and objective outcome. A 33% YES probability suggests traders view an exact 22°C high as possible but less likely than alternative outcomes like 21°C, 23°C, or 24°C. This reflects the probabilistic nature of daily temperature forecasts: while 22°C is well within the normal April range for Buenos Aires, hitting that specific value with precision requires converging conditions across wind speed, cloud cover, and solar radiation. Weather markets like this reveal collective expectations about atmospheric dynamics over a narrow time window.
This market resolves YES if Buenos Aires' official highest temperature on April 20, 2026 equals exactly 22°C, using data from Argentina's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional. The market closes and settles at UTC midnight on April 20, 2026.
Polymarket Trade is an independent third-party interface to the Polymarket CLOB prediction market exchange on Polygon — not affiliated with Polymarket, Inc. Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. Every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. Polymarket Trade is non-custodial — your funds never leave your wallet. Open the full interactive page linked above to place orders, see order book depth, and execute a trade.