Will the highest temperature in Chengdu on April 20 be 17°C or below? Current YES odds: 0% — this outcome is priced as extremely unlikely by traders.
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Chengdu, the capital of Sichuan Province in central China, experiences a humid subtropical climate characterized by mild winters and warm springs. By April 20, the city typically enters late spring with temperatures well above 17°C (about 63°F). This market questions whether Chengdu's maximum temperature on April 20, 2026 will remain unusually cool—at or below 17°C. The current 0% YES odds suggest traders believe this scenario has virtually no chance of occurring. This prediction reflects historical temperature patterns for the region; temperatures in the upper 20s°C are typical for this time of year in Chengdu. The threshold of 17°C represents a notably cold outcome compared to seasonal norms. For the YES side to prevail, an unexpected cold front or unusual weather system would need to suppress temperatures significantly below seasonal expectations. The market resolves based on the recorded high temperature data for Chengdu on April 20 from official meteorological sources. As the market approaches its end date, trader conviction appears unified around the warmer outcome.
The market resolves YES if the recorded maximum temperature in Chengdu on April 20, 2026 is 17°C or below, and NO if it exceeds 17°C. Resolution is based on official meteorological data from Chengdu weather stations.
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