Will Chengdu reach 27°C or higher on April 20? Current YES odds: 1%. Prediction market reflects strong expectation of cool spring weather and temperatures below the threshold.
This market has been archived. Historical content preserved below.
Chengdu, the capital of Sichuan province in central China, experiences mild spring temperatures in mid-April as the region transitions between seasons. This prediction market resolves tomorrow, April 20, 2026, with a specific threshold: will Chengdu's highest temperature reach or exceed 27°C? Currently trading at just 1% YES odds, the market reflects overwhelming consensus that the high will fall below this threshold. Such extreme pricing indicates traders expect cooler spring conditions to persist, with daily highs likely remaining in the upper teens to low twenties Celsius range. The near-certain outcome probability suggests minimal divergence between weather forecasters and prediction traders on expected conditions. Historically, Chengdu's late-April temperatures can vary, but the 1% odds positioning reveals strong conviction in a colder-than-threshold day ahead. This market demonstrates how prediction markets price expectations about verifiable future events. Resolution occurs automatically using official weather data from Chengdu's meteorological station, making this a straightforward, transparent prediction market with immediate settlement upon April 20's closing.
Resolves April 20, 2026 based on Chengdu's official daily high temperature. YES if 27°C or higher; NO if below.
Polymarket Trade is an independent third-party interface to the Polymarket CLOB prediction market exchange on Polygon — not affiliated with Polymarket, Inc. Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. Every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. Polymarket Trade is non-custodial — your funds never leave your wallet. Open the full interactive page linked above to place orders, see order book depth, and execute a trade.