Chengdu, the capital of Sichuan province, faces a weather-dependent markets test on May 18, 2026. The question asks whether the daily high will reach 36°C (approximately 97°F) or exceed it. Currently trading at just 1% YES odds, the market indicates strong trader conviction that temperatures will fall short of this threshold. In May, Chengdu typically experiences warm but not extreme heat; the transition from spring to early summer produces variable conditions. A 36°C day would represent unseasonably hot weather for mid-May in this region. The 1% price suggests traders expect cooler, more typical spring conditions, with morning lows in the mid-teens and highs in the mid-to-upper 20s Celsius. Historical volatility in Chengdu's spring weather creates uncertainty, but the extremely low odds reflect a consensus view that a 36°C+ day is unlikely on this specific date. The $8,250 in market liquidity provides reasonable depth for traders monitoring daily weather variations across Asia.
What factors could move this market?
Chengdu, situated in the Sichuan Basin, occupies a unique geographic position that significantly influences its climate patterns. The city experiences a humid subtropical climate characterized by high cloud cover and moisture retention, which typically moderate temperature extremes. May represents the transition between spring and early summer, a period where Chengdu's weather becomes increasingly variable. The question of whether Chengdu will record a high of 36°C or greater on May 18 hinges on specific atmospheric conditions prevailing that day.
Several factors could push temperatures toward the YES threshold. An early arrival of subtropical high-pressure systems from the south would bring sustained heat and clear skies, preventing cloud cover from moderating peak afternoon temperatures. A dry spell or reduced cloud cover would allow solar radiation to penetrate more directly, intensifying daytime heating. Should weather patterns align to deliver these conditions, reaching 36°C is mechanically possible, though May is typically not a month characterized by extreme heat spikes in Chengdu.
Conversely, factors supporting cooler conditions are currently weighted more heavily by market pricing. Chengdu's geography—nestled in a basin with surrounding hills—tends to retain moisture and cloud cover, which naturally suppresses peak temperatures. In May, monsoon influences begin to increase moisture inflow from the south, often producing afternoon thunderstorms that cool the air. Cold air masses from the north occasionally penetrate this far south, especially early-to-mid May. The fact that traders price YES at 1% suggests confidence in these cooling mechanisms prevailing on May 18.
Historical data on Chengdu's May temperatures shows that extremes are uncommon; typical May highs cluster around 25-28°C, with occasional spikes to 30-32°C on particularly sunny days. A 36°C reading would fall into the top 5-10% of May temperature days on historical record, making it statistically unusual. Recent years have seen relatively stable spring weather patterns across central China, without dramatic early-season heat waves.
The current 1% YES odds imply traders place negligible probability on extreme heat breaking through on this date. This pricing reflects both the seasonal baseline—May is typically mild—and the specific meteorological likelihood of conditions supporting a 36°C+ high. The $8,250 liquidity indicates sufficient market depth for daily weather traders to express positions, though the extreme price skew suggests little disagreement: almost all traders expect temperatures below 36°C.
What are traders watching for?
May 18 afternoon weather patterns: Clear skies and light winds could drive heat; cloud cover and rain would suppress temperatures.
Monsoon onset timing: Early monsoon arrival typically increases humidity and cloud cover, naturally capping peak daily temperatures.
Atmospheric pressure systems: Monitor approach of high-pressure systems from the south; low-pressure systems maintain cooler conditions.
Historical comparison: May temperature records for Chengdu show 36°C+ readings are rare, supporting the market's low YES probability.
How does this market resolve?
The market resolves on May 19, 2026 (00:00 UTC) based on the official maximum temperature recorded in Chengdu on May 18. YES wins if the highest temperature reaches 36°C or higher; NO wins if it remains below 36°C.
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