Will Chicago's high temperature land between 60-61°F on April 20? Current YES odds: 2%. Real-time weather prediction market with live trading.
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Chicago experiences variable spring weather in mid-April, with typical daily highs ranging from 55-70°F depending on prevailing weather patterns, jet stream position, and atmospheric conditions. This prediction market asks whether the highest temperature recorded in Chicago on April 20, 2026 will fall within a very narrow 60-61°F band. The current 2% odds on YES reflect how unlikely this specific one-degree range is to materialize—the market is essentially pricing in the view that while mid-range temperatures are certainly possible, hitting this exact narrow window is relatively uncommon. Weather prediction markets resolve based on official data from the National Weather Service, making this a concrete, independently verifiable outcome. The market demonstrates active trading activity with $3,112 in liquidity, showing that traders are actively positioning across different temperature scenarios throughout the spring season. The narrow 60-61°F range suggests traders believe April 20 is significantly more likely to see temperatures warmer or cooler than this band, with collective odds heavily favoring outcomes outside this range. This assessment reflects both historical April weather patterns for Chicago and current seasonal forecasting models.
The market resolves based on the National Weather Service's recorded high temperature for Chicago on April 20, 2026. YES wins if the high falls between 60-61°F; NO wins if the temperature is outside this range.
Polymarket Trade is an independent third-party interface to the Polymarket CLOB prediction market exchange on Polygon — not affiliated with Polymarket, Inc. Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. Every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. Polymarket Trade is non-custodial — your funds never leave your wallet. Open the full interactive page linked above to place orders, see order book depth, and execute a trade.