Will Chicago's highest temperature on April 20 be between 68-69°F? Current odds: 0%. Trade this weather prediction market with live prices and liquidity.
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Chicago's weather prediction market tracks the highest temperature forecast for April 20, 2026. This narrow range of 68-69°F represents mild spring conditions, typical for late April in Illinois. Understanding narrow temperature windows is useful for weather-sensitive traders and forecasting enthusiasts. The market resolves at 00:00 UTC on April 21 based on the National Weather Service's officially recorded high temperature for Chicago on April 20. Currently trading at 0% odds, the market reflects trader consensus that temperatures are unlikely to fall within this specific narrow band. This could indicate market forecasts pointing either significantly warmer or cooler than the 68-69°F range. The 0% price doesn't necessarily mean the event is impossible—Chicago weather can be unpredictable—but rather that current market participants assess low probability based on available meteorological data and recent price history. With $11,961 in liquidity and $840 in 24-hour volume, the market offers reasonable trading depth for weather prediction participants. The tight resolution window (single-day expiration on April 20) means this market provides a short-duration prediction trade focused purely on Chicago's temperature accuracy. Resolution depends entirely on official NWS station data, making outcomes completely objective, verifiable, and transparent.
Market resolves at 00:00 UTC on April 21 based on the National Weather Service's recorded high temperature for Chicago on April 20. YES if the high equals or is between 68.0-69.9°F; NO otherwise.
Polymarket Trade is an independent third-party interface to the Polymarket CLOB prediction market exchange on Polygon — not affiliated with Polymarket, Inc. Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. Every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. Polymarket Trade is non-custodial — your funds never leave your wallet. Open the full interactive page linked above to place orders, see order book depth, and execute a trade.