This is a very narrow temperature range for a Dallas prediction market in early May. The market currently prices this outcome at just 3%, reflecting deep trader skepticism about such a precise forecast. Dallas in early May typically experiences warm, pleasant weather with afternoon highs in the 70s to low 80s Fahrenheit, occasionally warmer still. For the daily high temperature to land in the exact 56-57°F range would require unusually cool conditions—namely, a strong cold front or late-spring cool-down well below normal seasonal norms. The tight one-degree temperature band makes this an especially challenging prediction compared to broader forecasts. Temperature forecasts generally become less reliable the further out the prediction extends, but with only two days until the event, meteorological models should have reasonable accuracy for Dallas. The 3% market price implies traders believe there is a negligible chance of such cool conditions materializing. The odds clearly reflect broad confidence in warmer-than-normal conditions persisting through May 3. This market will resolve at midnight UTC on May 3 based on the National Weather Service's official recorded high temperature for Dallas that day.
Deep dive — what moves this market
Dallas weather in early May is shaped by seasonal patterns and synoptic weather systems. By the first week of May, Dallas typically experiences late spring conditions with afternoon highs in the 75-85°F range, occasionally higher. The city's climate at this time of year transitions from the cool spring season toward summer warmth. For the daily high to settle in the 56-57°F range would represent a significant departure from seasonal climatology—roughly 15-25°F below the normal May highs for Dallas. Such cool conditions would require a strong cold front to move through North Texas, bringing arctic or near-arctic air into the region. While spring cold fronts do occur in Texas, arriving cold air is typically modified as it travels southward. By Dallas's latitude, temperatures rebound relatively quickly after the passage of a front unless the cold air mass is exceptionally deep and moisture conditions remain high enough to create lingering cool conditions and cloud cover. What could push the market toward YES (cooler outcome)? An unseasonable late-spring weather system, possibly associated with upper-level troughing or a mature cold front passage. Some years do see late spring or early summer storms that drop temperatures dramatically into the 50s and 60s. Historical precedent shows May can bring occasional surprises—though Dallas rarely sees high temperatures below 60°F in May, it is meteorologically possible given the right storm system. Another supporting factor: if a system stalls over Texas, rain and cloud cover could suppress daytime heating significantly. What could push the market toward NO (warmer outcome)? The overwhelming historical likelihood is that Dallas will experience near-normal or above-normal warmth for early May. High-pressure systems or southerly wind flow would reinforce warmth and prevent cool air intrusions. Most neutral El Niño / La Niña patterns favor warming into May across the Southern U.S. The current seasonal forecast tendency typically points toward above-average temperatures for the southern United States in early May. The current market price of 3% reflects extreme skepticism about this precise outcome. Traders are essentially saying: while a cold snap is meteorologically possible anywhere, the specific constraint of a 56-57°F high (not 55°F, not 58°F, but exactly this narrow band) is so statistically unlikely given Dallas climatology that only a small fraction of weather scenarios would produce this result. This reflects both the seasonality (May is warm) and the precision (one-degree constraint). Recent years' May weather in Dallas would be relevant contextually—if 2024 or 2025 saw unusually cool early-May patterns, that might slightly increase conviction toward YES; if recent years have trended consistently warm, it reinforces the 3% market price as reasonable.
What traders watch for
National Weather Service forecast for Dallas high on May 3; current modeling shows mild to warm, making 56-57°F increasingly unlikely.
Monitor cold front timing in five-day forecasts; absence of any significant system strongly favors warmer-than-56°F outcome.
Morning low temperature on May 3; if normal spring lows (low 50s-60s), daytime highs will likely exceed 56-57°F target.
Cloud cover and precipitation patterns; persistent rain could suppress daytime heating slightly, though not enough for this narrow range.
Historical May 3 temperatures in Dallas average 75-78°F; rare for highs to fall below 60°F in May without major weather event.
How does this market resolve?
Market resolves on May 3, 2026 at midnight UTC based on the National Weather Service's official high temperature recorded for Dallas. YES if the high falls between 56-57°F inclusive; otherwise NO.
Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. On Polymarket Trade, every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. This page summarizes the market state for readers arriving from search; for live trading (place orders, see order book depth, execute a trade) open the full interactive page linked above.
