This market resolves based on the single highest temperature reading in Dallas, Texas on May 3, 2026, requiring it to fall within the precise 58-59°F range. Dallas in early May typically experiences warming trends with highs in the mid-70s to low 80s Fahrenheit. A peak temperature between 58-59°F would represent a notably cool day—roughly 15-25°F below the seasonal normal for that date. The 3% odds currently priced in the market reflect the extreme statistical rarity of hitting such a narrow temperature band. This type of weather outcome would require an unusual weather pattern, likely a cold front or unusual spring atmospheric circulation pushing arctic or polar air south into Texas, which becomes increasingly unlikely as spring progresses deeper into May.
Deep dive — what moves this market
Dallas's climate in early May sits at an inflection point between spring's variability and summer's warming consistency. Historical data for May 3rd in Dallas shows typical high temperatures ranging from 75-82°F, with the long-term average around 79°F. A high of only 58-59°F would be a full 20-23°F below normal, representing a rare cold event for this specific date. Such cold weather in Dallas typically accompanies strong cold fronts associated with spring storm systems, where Arctic air masses can briefly plunge far south before being overcome by returning warmth. In May, these systems become increasingly rare because solar heating and jet stream positioning typically preclude such deep incursions of cold air. The narrowness of this market's resolution criteria—a single 1-degree range—adds significant challenge beyond simply forecasting a cool day. A market asking "Will Dallas top out below 65°F?" would be far more likely to resolve YES under similar meteorological conditions, but pinpointing 58-59°F exactly requires not just an unusual cold snap, but one with precise intensity. Current traders pricing this at 3% are essentially saying: yes, an unusual weather pattern is possible, but the combination of a cold day AND hitting this exact narrow band is statistically improbable. This pricing reflects both the rarity of late-spring Arctic air reaching Texas and the tightness of the temperature target. Any forecast updates showing a significant upper-level low pressure system or polar vortex disruption approaching the region would likely shift odds upward, while each day closer to May 3 without forecast indication of unusual cold would push probabilities even lower.
What traders watch for
National Weather Service forecast for Dallas May 3—watch for any cold front or Arctic air mass track
Upper-level atmospheric patterns and jet stream position during May 1-3 timeframe
Historical May cold snaps in Texas—precedent for late-spring Arctic incursions
Real-time forecast model consensus starting 48 hours before May 3
How does this market resolve?
Resolves YES if the highest temperature recorded in Dallas, Texas on May 3, 2026 falls between 58°F and 59°F inclusive; resolves NO otherwise. Official NOAA or local airport weather station data will determine the outcome.
Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. On Polymarket Trade, every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. This page summarizes the market state for readers arriving from search; for live trading (place orders, see order book depth, execute a trade) open the full interactive page linked above.
