Dallas faces an unusually cool May 3 if this market resolves YES. Typical highs in Dallas for early May range from the low to mid-80s°F, making a high of just 60-61°F a significant departure from seasonal norms. At 3% odds, traders are overwhelmingly skeptical such cool weather will prevail. This specific temperature band suggests a strong cold front or unusual weather pattern would be needed to push highs down nearly 25°F below normal. The low probability reflects both the rarity of such cool days in May and the difficulty of predicting exact 1°F temperature bands.
Deep dive — what moves this market
Dallas's climate in early May is typically dominated by warming spring weather as the region transitions toward summer heat. Average highs in the low 80s are standard for the first week of May, driven by southwesterly flow and increasing solar radiation. A high of only 60-61°F would represent a dramatic departure, roughly equivalent to late March or early April temperatures. Such a cool day in May would require a significant weather disruption: either a powerful cold front pushing arctic air southward, or an unusually persistent trough of low pressure keeping cooler air in place. Historically, May in Dallas does occasionally see cool days, but highs in the 60s are quite rare this late in spring. The 3% odds reflect trader assessment that such conditions are highly unlikely. What would it take to reach 60-61°F? A deep upper-level trough or cutoff low moving through the region, combined with cloud cover and northerly winds, could suppress highs significantly. Conversely, the most probable outcome is a typical May day with highs in the 80s, or potentially hotter if high pressure dominates. The narrow 1°F band adds another layer of difficulty—traders must not only predict cool weather but hit a very specific range. This illustrates why such precise, short-term temperature markets remain highly uncertain even with modern forecasting tools. Weather prediction markets at this granularity test both meteorological knowledge and the inherent unpredictability of atmospheric conditions near the edge of predictability.
What traders watch for
May 2-3 upper-level weather pattern: watch for any trough or low-pressure system approaching Texas
National Weather Service May 3 forecast: track if they're calling for below-normal highs
Cloud cover and northerly winds May 2-3: critical factors for suppressing daytime temperatures
Overnight lows May 2-3: unusually cool nights could indicate suppressed daytime highs
Surrounding days May 2 and 4: whether adjacent days show similar cool patterns
How does this market resolve?
Market resolves YES if the National Weather Service records the highest temperature in Dallas on May 3, 2026 as between 60.0°F and 61.9°F. Otherwise resolves NO.
Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. On Polymarket Trade, every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. This page summarizes the market state for readers arriving from search; for live trading (place orders, see order book depth, execute a trade) open the full interactive page linked above.
