Will Hong Kong's high on April 20 be exactly 23°C? Current odds: 0% YES. Trade the daily weather prediction market on Hong Kong's maximum temperature.
This market has been archived. Historical content preserved below.
Hong Kong experiences subtropical to tropical climate patterns, with April marking the warm spring season when temperatures typically range from 20-28°C. The market asks whether the daily high will be exactly 23°C on April 20, a moderate temperature within the normal seasonal range. At 0% YES odds, traders are pricing this outcome as unlikely, possibly reflecting the difficulty of predicting exact temperatures or preference for alternative strike prices. Weather forecasting at the degree-level precision creates natural pricing challenges, and markets more commonly show balanced interest when broader temperature ranges are offered. Hong Kong's spring weather exhibits significant daily volatility, with highs regularly swinging 4-5 degrees from typical averages, adding inherent uncertainty to exact-temperature predictions. The market carries $5,198 in available liquidity despite modest 24-hour volume of $2,872, suggesting sufficient depth for reasonable trade execution. Weather-based prediction markets resolve objectively through official meteorological data from the Hong Kong Observatory, eliminating subjectivity in outcomes. The resolution occurs after April 20 closes, allowing sufficient time for final temperature readings. These markets appeal to both weather enthusiasts and traders seeking specialized prediction instruments beyond traditional markets.
The market resolves YES if Hong Kong's daily maximum temperature on April 20 equals exactly 23°C according to the Hong Kong Observatory. It resolves NO if the high temperature is any other value.
Polymarket Trade is an independent third-party interface to the Polymarket CLOB prediction market exchange on Polygon — not affiliated with Polymarket, Inc. Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. Every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. Polymarket Trade is non-custodial — your funds never leave your wallet. Open the full interactive page linked above to place orders, see order book depth, and execute a trade.