Hong Kong weather forecast: Will the highest temperature be exactly 29°C on April 20? Current YES odds 21%. Trade this daily weather prediction market.
This market has been archived. Historical content preserved below.
Hong Kong in April transitions into late spring, typically characterized by warm, humid conditions with temperatures rising toward the summer peak. The question asks about a specific threshold: whether the highest temperature recorded on April 20, 2026, will be exactly 29°C. This is a discrete, verifiable outcome based on official meteorological data. Current YES odds of 21% indicate traders are pricing in roughly a one-in-five probability of this exact outcome. The relatively low odds suggest the market expects Hong Kong's temperature to either exceed 29°C notably or fall short of this threshold. Historically, Hong Kong's April temperatures range across the upper 20s to low 30s Celsius, with significant daily variation. The precision required—specifically 29°C rather than 28°C or 30°C—narrows the plausible range considerably. The market's price reflects deeper uncertainty about both the magnitude and the exact measurement of the daily high. As the event date approaches, weather markets typically exhibit increased volatility, providing opportunities for traders to reassess based on updated meteorological forecasts and model confidence.
The market resolves on April 20, 2026 based on the official highest temperature recorded by Hong Kong Observatory. YES wins if the daily high is exactly 29°C; any other value resolves NO.
Polymarket Trade is an independent third-party interface to the Polymarket CLOB prediction market exchange on Polygon — not affiliated with Polymarket, Inc. Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. Every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. Polymarket Trade is non-custodial — your funds never leave your wallet. Open the full interactive page linked above to place orders, see order book depth, and execute a trade.