Jakarta experiences tropical weather year-round, with May marking the transition between seasons. The highest daily temperature in Jakarta typically ranges between 28°C and 33°C during May. This market asks whether the high temperature will be exactly 29°C on May 18, 2026. The current YES odds of 0% indicate that traders across the market believe the temperature high will deviate from the 29°C mark—either falling below or exceeding it. Given Jakarta's weather patterns and the precise nature of this prediction, traders are heavily skewed toward NO, reflecting the difficulty of predicting an exact temperature value rather than a range. The recent trading activity shows moderate volume at $748 over 24 hours with $5,610 in liquidity, indicating steady interest in this recurring daily market. Historical temperature data from May in Jakarta suggests that while 29°C is within the typical range, hitting the exact value represents a narrow outcome that most traders view as unlikely.
What factors could move this market?
Jakarta, Indonesia's capital, sits at approximately 6 degrees south of the equator, positioned on the island of Java in Southeast Asia. The city experiences a tropical monsoon climate characterized by two distinct seasons: the wet season from November through March and the dry season from June through October. May falls within a transitional period, as the wet season winds down and the dry season begins to establish itself. During this month, Jakarta typically experiences daytime highs ranging from 28°C to 33°C, with humidity levels remaining high throughout the day. The specific question of whether the highest temperature will reach exactly 29°C on May 18 represents a micro-precision market, where traders must predict not just a temperature range or threshold, but an exact daily value.
The reasoning behind the 0% YES odds reflects several interconnected factors. First, predicting an exact daily temperature to the nearest degree Celsius is extraordinarily difficult; even modern meteorological forecasts provide ranges rather than point estimates. Second, Jakarta's weather during May shows considerable day-to-day variability. While 29°C falls well within the typical May range for Jakarta, the probability of the high temperature being exactly 29°C—not 28°C, not 30°C, but precisely 29°C—is inherently low. Third, traders in this market appear to be pricing in the likelihood that Jakarta's May 18 high will be either lower, pushed down by cloud cover and afternoon rain showers, or higher, driven by clear skies and intense solar radiation as the dry season establishes itself.
The market's structure as a recurring daily temperature market reveals how traders view precision-based weather prediction. Unlike broader markets on seasonal rainfall totals or monthly averages, which aggregate data and smooth volatility, daily high-temperature markets demand extreme accuracy. The $5,610 in liquidity and $748 in 24-hour volume suggest a stable but modest participant base—likely a mix of weather enthusiasts, hedge traders managing climate-adjacent portfolios, and algorithmic bots testing weather prediction models. The unanimous trader conviction reflected in 0% YES odds indicates remarkable consensus: the market has priced the exact 29°C outcome as essentially impossible, not improbable.
What are traders watching for?
May 18, 2026 maximum temperature reading from Jakarta's official weather station determines the outcome at midnight UTC.
Review last 5 years of May 18 historical highs in Jakarta to establish baseline probability for exact 29°C outcome.
Cloud cover and afternoon monsoon rain intensity on May 18 will be critical factors determining the daily high.
Dry season strength and early May weather persistence will influence whether higher or lower temperatures dominate.
How does this market resolve?
The market resolves YES if Jakarta's official maximum temperature on May 18, 2026 equals exactly 29°C. Resolution is determined by official Jakarta weather station records at market close (midnight UTC on May 18).
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