Will Lagos hit 38°C on April 20? Current odds: 0%. Trade the likelihood of extreme heat in Nigeria's largest city on this prediction market.
This market has been archived. Historical content preserved below.
Lagos, Nigeria's coastal megacity, experiences a tropical climate with high temperatures year-round. April typically falls within the dry season transition, where afternoon highs can approach 35-37°C. The specific threshold of 38°C represents an extreme heat event for the region, typically occurring only during peak harmattan winds or pronounced heat anomalies. This market resolves based on official temperature readings from Lagos's primary weather station on April 20. The 0% odds suggest traders view a 38°C reading as highly unlikely given historical April patterns and current meteorological forecasts. Lagos's coastal location moderates temperatures compared to inland Nigerian cities; the Atlantic's cooling influence typically caps daily highs below 38°C except during rare heat waves. The market's minimal volume of $2,253 over 24 hours reflects the low probability outcome and the specific, narrow resolution criteria. An uptick in odds would signal either updated weather forecasts showing anomalously hot conditions ahead or unexpected early-season heat spikes. The market's recurring daily structure allows traders to participate in temperature prediction across multiple days, building a historical record of heat events in Lagos.
The market resolves YES if Lagos's maximum temperature on April 20 reaches 38°C or higher, based on official weather station readings. Settlement occurs after midnight UTC on April 20.
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