Will London's highest temperature reach exactly 11°C on April 20? Trade this daily weather prediction market. Current YES odds: 1%. Closes at midnight UTC.
This market has been archived. Historical content preserved below.
London's weather on April 20 will be shaped by atmospheric conditions that meteorologists track and traders monitor closely. This market question focuses on a specific temperature outcome: whether London's highest temperature will reach exactly 11°C. Such precision in weather markets adds complexity and reduces the probability of any single exact outcome. Current market prices reflect a 1% probability for this result, indicating that traders view this specific temperature as statistically unlikely compared to other possible ranges. Weather prediction is inherently uncertain—meteorological forecasts produce temperature ranges rather than exact values, and variation across measurement stations can occur. The market resolves using official data from the UK Met Office or standard London weather station measurements, providing objective resolution criteria. The 1% odds suggest market participants believe warmer or cooler temperatures are considerably more probable for April 20 in London. As the resolution date approaches, traders will monitor updated weather forecasts and real-time temperature observations to refine their positions. The market closes at midnight UTC on April 20, providing a final 24-hour trading window for participants to adjust exposure based on the latest meteorological data and intraday observations.
The market resolves YES if London's highest temperature on April 20 matches exactly 11°C according to official UK Met Office data. Resolution occurs at market close on April 20 at 00:00 UTC.
Polymarket Trade is an independent third-party interface to the Polymarket CLOB prediction market exchange on Polygon — not affiliated with Polymarket, Inc. Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. Every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. Polymarket Trade is non-custodial — your funds never leave your wallet. Open the full interactive page linked above to place orders, see order book depth, and execute a trade.