Will Los Angeles reach 74°F on April 20? Current prediction market odds: 8% YES. Real-time trading on daily temperature forecast with live liquidity.
This market has been archived. Historical content preserved below.
This prediction market resolves based on the highest temperature recorded in Los Angeles on April 20, 2026. The question is straightforward: will the high reach 74°F or above? Currently trading at just 8% YES, the market indicates strong consensus that Los Angeles will experience temperatures below 74°F on this date. This low probability reflects typical April weather patterns in Southern California, where daytime highs generally range from the mid-60s to low-70s depending on weather systems and seasonal progression. The 8% odds suggest market participants expect either cooler-than-average conditions, marine layer influence, or overcast skies to keep temperatures subdued. Weather prediction markets like this are objectively resolvable—the daily high is measured by official meteorological stations and cannot be disputed. The market's current price incorporates available weather forecasts, climatological data, and real-time trading activity. With $2,050 in available liquidity, the market provides reasonable depth for trades. Volume activity shows consistent interest in this recurring daily temperature forecast. Odds may shift if weather models update or significant systems approach the region before April 20.
The market resolves YES if Los Angeles's official high temperature on April 20 reaches 74°F or higher, and NO if it remains below 74°F. Resolution uses official meteorological recordings.
Polymarket Trade is an independent third-party interface to the Polymarket CLOB prediction market exchange on Polygon — not affiliated with Polymarket, Inc. Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. Every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. Polymarket Trade is non-custodial — your funds never leave your wallet. Open the full interactive page linked above to place orders, see order book depth, and execute a trade.