Will Madrid's highest temperature on April 20 be 21°C or below? Current YES odds: 0%. Live prediction market on this weather event in Spain with $11K liquidity.
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Madrid's weather on April 20 represents a daily temperature ceiling prediction. The market question asks whether the highest temperature in Madrid will remain at or below 21°C on that date. With current YES odds at 0%, market participants show strong conviction that the maximum temperature will exceed this threshold. Mid-April in Madrid typically experiences spring warming, with historical average highs around 19-20°C, though daily variations are common based on broader European weather patterns. The resolution depends on official meteorological readings from Spain's national weather service (AEMET) or equivalent authority measurements of Madrid's maximum temperature for April 20. The 0% YES odds suggest market forecasters expect either above-average warmth or weather conditions pushing temperatures above the 21°C mark—a signal that traders believe cooler spring conditions are unlikely on this specific date. This is part of a recurring daily temperature prediction series active across multiple European cities. Markets like these rely on transparent, publicly available temperature data for resolution, making them straightforward to settle. The current liquidity of $11,050 enables continuous trading right up to the resolution deadline.
The market resolves based on the official maximum temperature recorded for Madrid on April 20, 2026, using data from Spain's national meteorological service (AEMET). YES resolves if the highest temperature is 21°C or below; NO resolves if it exceeds 21°C.
Polymarket Trade is an independent third-party interface to the Polymarket CLOB prediction market exchange on Polygon — not affiliated with Polymarket, Inc. Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. Every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. Polymarket Trade is non-custodial — your funds never leave your wallet. Open the full interactive page linked above to place orders, see order book depth, and execute a trade.