Will Madrid's highest temperature reach exactly 23°C on April 20? Current YES odds 0%. Explore real-time odds and trade on this live weather prediction market.
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Madrid's April weather exhibits significant variability, with daily highs typically ranging between 16°C and 24°C during this transitional spring month. This market tracks a precise outcome: whether the maximum temperature in Madrid on April 20, 2026, will be exactly 23°C. The current YES odds of 0% reflect market participants' assessment that this specific temperature target is extremely unlikely on the given date. Weather prediction markets like this rely on verifiable data from official weather monitoring stations that record daily temperature extremes, ensuring objective and transparent resolution criteria. The 0% probability indicates strong market consensus that April 20's high temperature in Madrid will either fall below or exceed the 23°C threshold. Such granular weather markets require precise measurement standards and access to historical weather data patterns to establish reliable resolution baselines. The market's current pricing suggests traders view 23°C as an improbable outcome, perhaps too precise or statistically unlikely given typical April weather patterns in Madrid. This reflects the inherent challenge of predicting exact temperatures rather than ranges. The recorded 24-hour trading volume of $1,275 and available liquidity of $7,009 indicate modest but meaningful participation in this specialized weather prediction market among traders testing forecasting models or tracking weather-sensitive positions.
Market resolves YES if the maximum temperature recorded in Madrid on April 20, 2026, is exactly 23°C according to official weather data. Resolves NO if the high temperature is any value other than 23°C.
Polymarket Trade is an independent third-party interface to the Polymarket CLOB prediction market exchange on Polygon — not affiliated with Polymarket, Inc. Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. Every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. Polymarket Trade is non-custodial — your funds never leave your wallet. Open the full interactive page linked above to place orders, see order book depth, and execute a trade.