Will Miami's highest temperature be 78-79°F on April 20, 2026? Current YES odds: 2%. Trade weather forecasts and temperature predictions on this live prediction market.
This market has been archived. Historical content preserved below.
Miami's daily high temperature in mid-April typically ranges from 80-86°F, with occasional variance depending on cloud cover and wind patterns. This market narrows the prediction to a specific 2-degree band: between 78-79°F. The 2% odds reflect how unlikely this narrow range is relative to seasonal norms. Traders are effectively pricing in that Miami will either be warmer than 79°F—the more probable outcome given April's warmth—or cooler than 78°F, though the latter is less common. The market resolves against Miami's National Weather Service official high for April 20, 2026, a public and verifiable data source. With current YES odds at just 2%, the market implies strong consensus that the high will fall outside this band. Temperature prediction markets like this track micro-level weather outcomes and are popular among weather enthusiasts and forecast traders. The low odds have remained stable, suggesting traders consistently expect Miami to be either above or below this specific range.
The market resolves at end of day April 20, 2026, based on the National Weather Service official high temperature for Miami. The market settles YES if the high is between 78-79°F inclusive, NO otherwise.
Polymarket Trade is an independent third-party interface to the Polymarket CLOB prediction market exchange on Polygon — not affiliated with Polymarket, Inc. Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. Every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. Polymarket Trade is non-custodial — your funds never leave your wallet. Open the full interactive page linked above to place orders, see order book depth, and execute a trade.