Will Miami's highest temperature fall within 84-85°F on April 20? Current odds show 41% probability. Trade predictions about spring weather patterns.
This market has been archived. Historical content preserved below.
Miami's daily high temperature on April 20 offers a measurable prediction point during spring transition season. The National Weather Service provides official high temperatures daily for Miami, making this market objectively resolvable based on a single, verifiable data point. An 84-85°F high would represent typical spring warmth for South Florida, falling comfortably between cooler frontal passages and the pre-summer heat waves that characterize late May and June. The current 41% probability suggests roughly 2-in-5 odds the high lands precisely within this narrow 2-degree window—traders view this as moderately unlikely but certainly plausible. Historical April weather in Miami typically sees daily highs in the mid-80s Fahrenheit, though temperature variability increases as the month progresses and tropical systems or cold air masses move closer to the region. The market's 24-hour volume of $2,379 reflects steady interest in daily weather prediction trading. Resolution depends entirely on the official National Weather Service high temperature reading recorded for Miami International Airport on April 20. As market close approaches at midnight UTC, odds tend to tighten progressively toward the most recent National Weather Service forecast, which updates every 6 hours through market expiration.
The market resolves based on the official National Weather Service high temperature recorded for Miami on April 20, 2026. YES resolves if the high falls between 84-85°F; otherwise NO resolves.
Polymarket Trade is an independent third-party interface to the Polymarket CLOB prediction market exchange on Polygon — not affiliated with Polymarket, Inc. Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. Every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. Polymarket Trade is non-custodial — your funds never leave your wallet. Open the full interactive page linked above to place orders, see order book depth, and execute a trade.