Will Milan's high be exactly 17°C on April 20? Current YES odds: 0%. Trade this precise weather prediction market with live odds and real-time liquidity.
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This market tracks whether Milan's highest temperature on April 20, 2026 will be exactly 17°C. Milan in mid-April typically experiences spring temperatures ranging from 10–18°C, making this a precise prediction about daily weather outcomes. The market is resolvable through official meteorological data from Italy's national weather service or major weather stations in Milan, providing objective settlement at market close. The current 0% YES odds indicate the prediction market strongly expects Milan's high to deviate from exactly 17°C on that date. This extreme confidence reflects trader assessment that the temperature will likely fall outside this narrow threshold—either warmer due to typical April warming patterns or colder due to regional variability and unpredictable weather systems. The modest $8,682 in liquidity and $1,628 in 24-hour volume suggest limited trading participation in this daily weather event. Odds have remained near 0% consistently, indicating sustained market consensus that this precise outcome is highly improbable. Any shifts in weather forecasts showing cooling trends could theoretically move odds, but historical patterns and current model data maintain strong confidence against this specific temperature target.
This market resolves based on the official highest temperature recorded in Milan on April 20, 2026, verified by Italy's national meteorological authority. Settlement occurs at market end when the trading period closes and final temperature data is confirmed.
Polymarket Trade is an independent third-party interface to the Polymarket CLOB prediction market exchange on Polygon — not affiliated with Polymarket, Inc. Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. Every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. Polymarket Trade is non-custodial — your funds never leave your wallet. Open the full interactive page linked above to place orders, see order book depth, and execute a trade.