Will Moscow's highest temperature on April 20 be exactly 3°C? Currently trading at 2% YES odds. Live weather prediction market with real-time pricing.
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Moscow experiences highly variable spring weather in late April, with temperatures fluctuating between below freezing and moderately cool conditions. A high of exactly 3°C represents cool weather but remains plausible during this season, particularly if a cold air mass moves over the region. The prediction market currently prices this scenario at only 2%, reflecting the difficulty of forecasting precise temperature endpoints. This valuation suggests traders believe the maximum temperature is more likely to deviate above or below 3°C rather than settle exactly on that value. The 2% probability implies roughly a 1-in-50 chance of the maximum equaling 3°C, typical pricing for highly specific meteorological outcomes. With $3,919 in liquidity and $1,457 in 24-hour volume, the market maintains moderate trading activity. Daily temperature markets serve as real-time aggregations of collective forecasting and appeal to traders with exposure to weather-dependent outcomes. Such precise temperature targets make these markets particularly sensitive to model uncertainty and the inherent unpredictability of daily extremes.
This market resolves on April 20, 2026 at midnight UTC based on the recorded highest temperature in Moscow. YES if the maximum temperature equals exactly 3°C; NO if it differs.
Polymarket Trade is an independent third-party interface to the Polymarket CLOB prediction market exchange on Polygon — not affiliated with Polymarket, Inc. Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. Every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. Polymarket Trade is non-custodial — your funds never leave your wallet. Open the full interactive page linked above to place orders, see order book depth, and execute a trade.