Will the highest temperature in Munich reach 16°C or higher on April 20? Current YES odds: 3%. Trade weather predictions with real-time odds.
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This prediction market focuses on the highest temperature that will be recorded in Munich, Germany, on April 20, 2026. The resolution criterion asks whether the daily high reaches 16°C (approximately 61°F) or exceeds it, determined by official meteorological data from Munich weather stations. At current odds of 3% for YES, the market is pricing in a strong expectation that the day will remain cooler than this threshold. Historically, April weather in Munich transitions through spring patterns, with typical highs ranging from 12 to 18°C depending on specific weather systems and regional conditions. The 3% YES odds suggest traders anticipate below-seasonal temperatures or unusual cool patterns on this particular date. Such markets aggregate predictive information into real-time odds that shift with changing forecasts and participant conviction. Temperature prediction markets rely on precise, verifiable data—making them among the most straightforward to resolve objectively. As new meteorological forecasts emerge closer to April 20, trading odds typically adjust to reflect updated weather models and shifting probabilities based on fresh forecast data.
The market resolves based on the highest temperature recorded in Munich on April 20, 2026, using official meteorological station data. YES wins if the high reaches 16°C or higher; NO wins if it remains below 16°C.
Polymarket Trade is an independent third-party interface to the Polymarket CLOB prediction market exchange on Polygon — not affiliated with Polymarket, Inc. Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. Every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. Polymarket Trade is non-custodial — your funds never leave your wallet. Open the full interactive page linked above to place orders, see order book depth, and execute a trade.