This prediction market asks whether Munich's highest temperature will be exactly 18°C on May 3, 2026—a highly specific weather forecast. With current odds at 1% for YES, the market is pricing this as extremely unlikely. The question requires precision: not 17°C or 19°C, but precisely 18°C as the day's maximum. In early May, Munich typically experiences spring weather with highs ranging from 12 to 20°C depending on synoptic patterns and air mass advection. A 1% probability reflects the difficulty of hitting any single temperature value when daily highs fluctuate naturally across a range. The odds suggest traders view other outcomes—nearby temperatures like 17°C or 19°C—as far more probable. This market resolves definitively on May 3, 2026, using Munich's official meteorological high temperature. The extremely low YES odds indicate strong trader conviction that the temperature will deviate from exactly 18°C, whether warmer or cooler. Over the next 48 hours, weather forecasts will sharpen, and actual conditions will determine the outcome.
Deep dive — what moves this market
Munich's climate in early May reflects the transition from spring to early summer. The city sits in southern Bavaria at an elevation of 520 meters, with continental influences from the north and Alpine effects from the south. Typical May weather includes warming trends as solar insolation increases, but cold snaps remain possible when Arctic air masses push southward. The 1% YES odds for exactly 18°C reflect a fundamental challenge in weather prediction: hitting any single temperature value requires convergence of multiple atmospheric variables to one precise point. Temperature is not a binary outcome but a continuous distribution. Factors that could align conditions toward 18°C include a weak high-pressure system stalling over southern Germany, with moderate cloud cover and northwesterly flow limiting excessive warming. Cool nights followed by moderate morning recovery could also nudge conditions into this range. Conversely, a strong ridge of high pressure, clear skies, and southerly Mediterranean flow could easily push temperatures to 22°C or higher. A low-pressure system or Atlantic frontal passage approaching from the west could suppress temperatures toward 12-15°C instead. Historically, Munich's May climate shows considerable variability. Long-term averages for early May highs center around 18-20°C, but day-to-day swings of 5-8°C are common. In recent years, late April and early May have occasionally brought both record warmth—2015 saw 30°C highs in late April across Bavaria—and lingering cold snaps, though frosts in early May remain uncommon. This variability means 18°C sits in the modal range of likely outcomes but is not guaranteed. The 1% odds suggest traders view the precision requirement as prohibitively difficult. Even if a forecast says "high around 18°C," actual observations might resolve to 17.8°C, 18.2°C, or 18.5°C depending on measurement site and methodology. German weather stations use standardized thermometry, typically reporting to 0.1°C precision, but the exact maximum across Munich's metropolitan area could vary by location. Market resolution will depend on official DWD (Deutscher Wetterdienst) data. The current price trajectory shows stable trader consensus that other temperature outcomes dominate. Near-term weather updates over May 1-2 could shift odds if forecasts unexpectedly converge on exactly 18°C, but current dynamics point toward acceptance of outcomes ranging from 15-22°C.
What traders watch for
May 2-3 overnight low and morning warming rate determine ceiling for maximum temperature; cloud cover and wind direction are critical.
DWD and MeteoGroup official forecasts released daily through May 3; watch if any model specifically converges on 18°C outcome.
Real-time Munich weather station data (temperature, dew point, pressure, cloud coverage) May 2-3 reveals whether setup favors exactly 18°C.
May 3 early morning forecast update and overnight minimum temperature May 2-3 establish boundary conditions for maximum potential.
How does this market resolve?
Market resolves YES if Munich's official highest temperature on May 3, 2026 equals exactly 18°C as reported by DWD. Resolution determined at UTC midnight on May 3 using standard German meteorological measurement from the designated Munich weather station.
Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. On Polymarket Trade, every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. This page summarizes the market state for readers arriving from search; for live trading (place orders, see order book depth, execute a trade) open the full interactive page linked above.
