Will the highest temperature in New York City on April 20 reach 45°F or below? Current YES odds: 10%. Trade this weather market with $3,885 liquidity.
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In mid-April, New York City typically experiences mild spring temperatures, ranging from 50 to 65 degrees Fahrenheit as the region transitions away from winter weather. A high temperature of 45°F or below on April 20 would represent unusually cold conditions for this period, though such outcomes are not unprecedented during spring's transitional season. The current market price reflects a 10% probability of this outcome, suggesting market participants view such cool weather as unlikely but still plausible. This weather prediction market resolves based on the official highest temperature recorded in New York City on April 20, 2026, using data from the National Weather Service or equivalent official meteorological reporting. The 10% YES odds indicate market expectations for milder, more seasonally typical mid-spring conditions. Weather prediction markets attract traders seeking to trade meteorological forecasts and seasonal weather patterns. Price movement in this market typically correlates with updated weather forecasts as the event date approaches, allowing participants to adjust their market positions based on new meteorological data.
This market resolves YES if the highest temperature recorded in New York City on April 20, 2026 is 45°F or below, and NO if temperatures exceed 45°F. Resolution is determined by official National Weather Service data.
Polymarket Trade is an independent third-party interface to the Polymarket CLOB prediction market exchange on Polygon — not affiliated with Polymarket, Inc. Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. Every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. Polymarket Trade is non-custodial — your funds never leave your wallet. Open the full interactive page linked above to place orders, see order book depth, and execute a trade.