Will Paris's highest temperature be exactly 18°C on April 20, 2026? Current odds: 3% YES. Trade weather outcomes in this daily prediction market.
This market has been archived. Historical content preserved below.
On April 20, 2026, Paris's highest temperature will be measured against the 18°C threshold. This daily weather market resolves based on official meteorological data from Météo-France, France's national weather service. The current YES odds of 3% reflect trader sentiment that exactly 18°C is an unlikely outcome. Mid-April weather in Paris typically ranges 14–19°C, so while 18°C falls within normal spring patterns, hitting that exact temperature mark represents a narrow target. Weather in Paris varies based on Atlantic pressure systems and local microclimates, adding inherent forecast uncertainty. The market's liquidity of $4,420 with approximately $2,713 in daily volume indicates steady participation from weather traders and forecast enthusiasts. Current market pricing suggests traders are skeptical this specific temperature will be reached. Most meteorological forecast models for late-April Paris tend to cluster around 16–17°C or 19°C rather than precisely 18°C. As April 20 approaches, the odds may shift if extended weather forecasts narrow toward 18°C, or may remain low if predictions diverge toward cooler or warmer outcomes. These granular daily temperature markets appeal to weather professionals, probability traders, and those interested in precise meteorological outcomes.
The market resolves YES if the highest temperature in Paris on April 20, 2026 is exactly 18°C according to Météo-France official records. Otherwise, it resolves NO.
Polymarket Trade is an independent third-party interface to the Polymarket CLOB prediction market exchange on Polygon — not affiliated with Polymarket, Inc. Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. Every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. Polymarket Trade is non-custodial — your funds never leave your wallet. Open the full interactive page linked above to place orders, see order book depth, and execute a trade.