Will the highest temperature in Paris be exactly 19°C on April 20? Current YES odds: 1%. Trade this live weather prediction market on Polymarket.
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Paris experiences mild spring weather in mid-April, with typical highs around 16–18°C. This market questions whether April 20 will see a peak temperature of exactly 19°C—just one degree above the seasonal average. The 1% YES odds reflect the extremely low probability assigned by traders to this precise temperature outcome. Weather forecasts are inherently uncertain at single-degree resolution, especially for exact predictions several days forward. Historical April weather in Paris shows considerable variation, with daily highs ranging from 12°C to 22°C depending on air mass patterns and cloud cover. The market resolves based on the official maximum temperature recorded for April 20 by Météo-France or equivalent meteorological authority. The very low odds suggest traders believe other outcomes—whether cooler (16–18°C), warmer (20–22°C), or significantly different—are far more probable given seasonal patterns and current atmospheric conditions. This market captures the challenge of predicting weather at precise temperature thresholds.
The market resolves based on the official maximum temperature recorded in Paris on April 20, 2026 by Météo-France or equivalent authority. YES if exactly 19°C; NO for any other temperature.
Polymarket Trade is an independent third-party interface to the Polymarket CLOB prediction market exchange on Polygon — not affiliated with Polymarket, Inc. Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. Every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. Polymarket Trade is non-custodial — your funds never leave your wallet. Open the full interactive page linked above to place orders, see order book depth, and execute a trade.