Will San Francisco's high temperature reach 74°F or higher on April 20? Current market odds: YES 0%. Trade this short-term weather prediction market.
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San Francisco experiences mild, temperate spring weather in April, with typical daily high temperatures ranging from 60 to 72°F. April 20 falls at the tail end of spring as the city transitions toward warmer summer patterns. A high temperature of 74°F or above would represent warmer-than-average conditions for the period, though such days are not uncommon, particularly with afternoon clearing, strong solar radiation, and light marine winds from the Pacific. The current market pricing reflects very low probability for this outcome, with YES odds at 0%, suggesting traders anticipate cooler or typical spring weather patterns to dominate the forecast. This market resolves based on official National Weather Service temperature readings for San Francisco (downtown or equivalent verified source), making it a completely verifiable short-term weather prediction trade. The complete absence of buy-side interest in the YES outcome indicates strong confidence among market participants that the threshold will not be met. The odds trajectory shows no meaningful price movement, reflecting consensus among traders around lower-temperature expectations for the date.
Market resolves YES if San Francisco's official high temperature on April 20, 2026 is 74°F or above; NO if below 74°F. Resolution uses National Weather Service data.
Polymarket Trade is an independent third-party interface to the Polymarket CLOB prediction market exchange on Polygon — not affiliated with Polymarket, Inc. Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. Every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. Polymarket Trade is non-custodial — your funds never leave your wallet. Open the full interactive page linked above to place orders, see order book depth, and execute a trade.